On 3 March 2026, the Chancellor delivered the Spring Statement (Spring Forecast), a relatively low-key update with no major new tax or spending announcements on the day, but with important (Office for Budget Responsibility) OBR forecast updates and a reminder that several already-announced changes are about to hit from April 2026.
Below is what was said, the headline numbers, and what we recommend business owners do next.
The headline economic updates (OBR forecasts)
Growth (GDP)
- The (Office for Budget Responsibility) OBR now expects the UK economy to grow 1.1% in 2026 (down from 1.4% previously forecast).
- Growth is then expected to pick up to 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, and 1.5% in 2029 and 2030.
Inflation
- Inflation is expected to ease faster than previously forecast, with reporting suggesting 2.3% average inflation in 2026 and a return to the 2% target by 2027.
Unemployment
- Unemployment is forecast to rise to around 5.3% in 2026 before gradually falling to 4.1% by 2030.
Public finances (“headroom”)
- The Chancellor reiterated that borrowing is forecast to fall over the period, and that there is increased “headroom” against fiscal rules (often interpreted as slightly more room to manoeuvre in future Budgets).
Key message: no new tax surprises, but April 2026 changes still matter
Because there were no big new tax measures announced in the statement itself, the practical impact for most clients is less about “new surprises” and more about planning for changes already scheduled, especially those starting from 6 April 2026 and the rollout of Making Tax Digital for Income Tax.
What business owners should focus on now (April 2026 action list)
1) Making Tax Digital for Income Tax starts (first wave)
From 6 April 2026, MTD for Income Tax begins for sole traders and landlords with qualifying income over £50,000 (qualifying income = gross self-employment + property income, before expenses).
What to do now
- Confirm whether you’re likely above the threshold (based on 2024/25 figures).
- Move bookkeeping to MTD-compatible software.
- Get ready for quarterly updates plus the year-end finalisation.
2) Dividend tax rates increase from 6 April 2026
Dividend tax rates are set to increase to:
- 10.75% (Basic rate)
- 35.75% (Higher rate)
Additional rate remains 39.35%.
What to do now
- If you’re a company director/shareholder, review your 2025/26 dividend plan and wider salary vs dividends strategy before the new tax year.
What this means in plain English
If you’re a sole trader or landlord:
The biggest practical change is how you’ll report (MTD), not just how much you pay. If you’ll be in the first MTD wave, getting your systems and record-keeping sorted now will save stress later.
If you run a limited company:
The dividend rate change makes it worth reviewing remuneration planning before 6 April 2026.
If you employ staff:
Even though the Spring Statement itself didn’t announce big employer tax changes, the wider economic outlook (costs, hiring confidence, interest rates) is still relevant for payroll budgeting and pricing decisions.
Our practical recommendation (what Accounting People can do for you)
If you want help turning the Spring Forecast into an actual plan, we can support with:
- MTD for Income Tax readiness: software setup, bookkeeping workflows, quarterly update support
- Director tax planning ahead of 6 April 2026 (salary/dividends, timing, allowances)
- Cashflow + forecasting in light of inflation, rate expectations, and demand changes
